TRASPOL - CheckMyBus 2025: Analysis of the evolution of the bus market in Europe over the last 6 years

Nuremberg/Milan, May 8, 2025 – The first edition of the new TRASPOL report, in collaboration with CheckMyBus, is now available. No longer focused exclusively on Italy, the report now covers the whole of Europe. The new report highlights the most significant trends of the last six years, providing an overview of Europe as a whole and highlighting the differences between countries.
Among the topics covered are the age and gender of travelers, traffic differences between countries and sub-markets, and ticket price trends during years of major challenges for the sector, such as COVID and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Until about fifteen years ago, each country in the EU regulated its own bus market, making it difficult to create routes to and from other countries. Local routes were often assigned to a single operator, thereby eliminating any kind of competition. Starting in 2011, however, new EU reforms opened up the market, allowing bus companies to operate both international routes and enter the national markets of other countries, as well as opening local routes to competition.

European reforms have had the desired effect of increasing cross-border routes and opening up competition, which has led to an increase in passengers and lower prices, although national routes remain the most popular. However, full competition remains difficult in some countries, where complicated rules and pervasive bureaucracy still create barriers to market entry for new players. Small and medium-sized enterprises are often the hardest hit, as they lack the resources to cope with bureaucratic costs or expand into other areas of the EU.

Some regions of Europe, such as the Balkans and southern Italy, have instead seen buses fill the gaps left by other transport services, particularly rail services, which are often absent or inefficient. Intercity services, such as FlixBus, are able to go beyond large cities and connect areas not served by trains. Airport connections are a good example of a profitable niche with little rail competition and passengers willing to pay higher fares.

The first part of the report provides an overview of who typically travels by bus. It is interesting to note that men make up the majority of passengers in almost all markets, and their share has been increasing since 2019. At the same time, countries such as the United Kingdom, Italy, and the Netherlands see a higher percentage of women purchasing tickets. If we look at the age distribution, around 50% of passengers are under 34, which certainly highlights their popularity among younger people, but without excluding older people, who account for the remaining half of travelers. This tells us that buses are not seen as simply a low-cost means of transport for travelers on a tight budget, but a service appreciated by all sections of the population.

Looking at cross-border markets, the largest are those from the Geneva region to the French Rhône-Alpes region and from Galicia to Porto. In both cases, these are neighboring regions with important cross-border relations. However, most of the 30 most important international routes involve Paris and, to a lesser extent, Madrid and London. It is interesting to note that Portugal is the starting point for many of these pairs, indicating that buses are an alternative to trains for the tourist and leisure market. Another group of large OD pairs is found in the Balkan region, demonstrating once again the role of buses when trains are not sufficient.

In addition to who travels, it is also important to understand when and where intercity buses are used the most. Travel habits vary greatly across the continent, with some countries showing strong seasonal trends related to tourism. The most unbalanced markets are those in the Balkan region, where family and leisure travel peaks during the summer months. Countries such as Switzerland and Turkey also experience high volumes during the tourist season, and popular destinations such as Italy and France behave similarly, but with less seasonal variation. This is often due to strong year-round demand for travel unrelated to tourism, or more prevalent use of airplanes and trains. Some countries, including France, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, actually see slightly higher bus traffic in winter, which is relatively rare.

Airport connections have become an important part of the bus market, especially in the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, and Poland. These routes offer a flexible and convenient alternative to other modes of transport and connect more destinations than capital cities or major cities. In contrast, almost no airports in Central Europe appear in the TOP 30 destinations for bus traffic, probably due to the presence of already excellent rail connections that effectively serve travelers heading to airports.

An important part of the report focuses on how prices have changed over the years. Looking at the graph, you can clearly see how external events have greatly influenced the trend: 2020 saw the peak caused by Covid, while 2022 shows the effects of fuel price increases caused by the war in Ukraine. Only in 2023 do we finally see a decline in prices, probably due to a stabilization of the market after years of stressful events. Overall, compared to 2019, the final increase at the end of 2024 is around 15%, consistent with the level of inflation in the Eurozone. Airport connections, already more expensive than regular intercity buses, have only partially followed this trend: increased demand has supported prices, and as of 2024, we are seeing an increase of around 30%.

The new annual report on the performance of the long-distance bus market in Europe, prepared by Politecnico di Milano TRASPOL in collaboration with CheckMyBus, includes six years of monitoring. The full report can be downloaded here: Report on the Long-Distance Bus Market in Europe | YEARS 2019-2025.

CheckMyBus, the international long-distance bus search engine shows real-time departures and prices in more than 90 countries. With more than 6000 bus companies and millions of weekly departures, customers can have access to a virtual network of bus connections worldwide. Tickets and more information at www.checkmybus.it.

TRASPOL is part of the DAStU (Department of Architecture and Urban Studies) of the Politecnico di Milano. The Laboratory is involved in research, training and consulting in the field of transport and infrastructure, particularly the relationship between public planning, economics and regulation. TRASPOL has been studying the long-distance bus market in Italy and abroad since 2011, in the broader context of long-distance passenger transport (rail, air). More information: www.traspol.polimi.it

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